Actuary become aware on Jan 5, 1998

s7duongs7duong
in CIA.Subseq

I wonder... what if the weather stations forecasted the eastern Canada ice storm a week in advance (before calculation date), and the actuary saw the forecast (aware).

Would it still be a subsequent event? Would the actuary then try to reflect the ice storm in the LRC based on expectations of a catastrophic ice storm?

Comments

  • Staff-T1Staff-T1

    Couple of comments on this:

    • Forecasts of an event do not necessarily translate to a Cat event for a given insured.
    • But let's say we knew 100% that it was going to hit in an area with substantial exposures. We would then proceed on the left branch of the tree, which means we would probably have to reflect it in our calculations. This is no longer a subsequent event though as per 4.1
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